While weather forecasters remain divided on how the monsoons will play out in India over the next few months, analysts believe the news at the current juncture - at best - can trigger a knee-jerk reaction in the markets. They believe it is too early to say whether the sub-par monsoon on account of El Nino can seriously dent the market sentiment in the short-to-medium term. "These are just initial forecasts and we will have another round / status update from the weather forecasters a month down the line.
Reserve Bank on Thursday retained the growth and inflation projection at 7.2 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively for the current fiscal amid expectations of a normal monsoon. In its last bi-monthly monetary policy review in June, RBI had projected real GDP growth and retail inflation at the same.
Political sources say Modi is 'keen' on getting the NCP (SP) over to the Mahayuti to counter Eknath Shinde's 'demands' and to act as a cushion against his present allies, Nitish Kumar and N Chandrababu Naidu, 'in case their relationship became untenable'.
The situation in Manipur and the Delhi services ordinance are set to dominate the Monsoon session of Parliament beginning Thursday with the Opposition gearing up to raise these issues to corner the government.
Overall, volume growth is likely to be in the range of 3-8 per cent for two-wheelers and 5-7 per cent for passenger vehicles owing to healthy demand from urban and rural areas and pending order books.
Retail inflation declined to a five-year low of 3.54 per cent in July mainly on account of subdued prices of food items, and base effect, according to official data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.08 per cent in June 2024 and 7.44 per cent in July 2023.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said economic activity in some sectors have picked up pace during October-November and a GDP growth of 6.5-7 per cent in the current fiscal is feasible.
India recorded around 16 per cent more rainfall than normal in August, with rainfall over Northwest India recorded at 253.9 mm, the second highest in August since 2001, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday.
The FMCG industry hopes for a revival in consumption growth in 2025 with some 'green shoots' already visible, after having a challenging year amid escalating input costs and a double-digit rise in food inflation, which ultimately slowed down the pace of the urban market growth in the second half of 2024. Soaring prices of commodities such as palm oil, coffee, cocoa and wheat forced FMCG players to go for a hike of 3 to 5 per cent or resort to shrinkflation by reducing pack sizes and grammage to retain attractive price points, fearing a volume loss.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages.For India's largest engineering firm, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the analysts expect a 20 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, and an 8.1 per cent core business Ebitda margin, up 40 bps from a year ago.
The IMD said that rainfall over India in August and September would be around 106 percent of the long-period average of 422.8 mm.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 4-month low of 1.31 per cent in August due to a decline in prices of vegetables and fuel, even though onion and potato prices spiked, according to official data released on Tuesday. Wholesale price index-based inflation fell for the second straight month in August after it hit a high of 3.43 per cent in May. Inflation in July was 2.04 per cent. In August last year, WPI inflation was (-) 0.46 per cent.
The growth in production of eight key infrastructure sectors entered a negative zone after three-and-a-half years, contracting 1.8 per cent in August 2024 due to decline in output of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, cement and electricity, according to official data released on Monday. The growth rate was 6.1 per cent in July. The growth of core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 13.4 per cent in August 2023.
A massive sinkhole appeared on a road near Samadhan Chowk, Pune, and nearly swallowed a truck.
The total vehicle retail sales in India witnessed a 32 per cent on-year rise in October to 28,32,944 units with all segments including two-wheelers and passenger vehicles registering strong growth, Federation of Automobile Dealers' Association (FADA) said on Wednesday. The total vehicle retail sales in October 2023 stood at 21,43,929 units, as per FADA. The strong growth in October this year was largely driven by the rural market, especially boosting two-wheeler and passenger vehicles sales, supported by increased Minimum Support Price (MSP) for Rabi crops, FADA said.
June rainfall accounts for 15 percent of the total precipitation of 87 cm recorded during the four-month monsoon season in the country.
Major two-wheeler manufacturers in India witnessed a double-digit increase in domestic sales in October, driven by the festival fervour.
In addition to that, 68 people still remain missing, with 100 more sustaining injuries in the disaster.
With concern on food inflation ebbing with the monsoon progressing well, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is warming up to the idea of a change in stance to "neutral" from "withdrawal of accommodation", according to economists. In his speech on Thursday during the annual event of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry-Indian Banks' Association, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said: "The balance between inflation and growth is well-poised."
Days before Diwali, the monthly economic review by the finance ministry has highlighted moderation in urban demand, softening consumer sentiments and limited footfall as areas that need to be watched. In its review, released on Monday, the ministry also noted the early signs of artificial intelligence displacing workers, as described in anecdotal reports. The commentary from several large consumer goods companies, including Nestl India, Hindustan Unilever, and ITC, in their recent quarterly earnings, has been around a sluggish urban demand. Rural consumption, however, has mostly seen a revival, the companies pointed out.
The BJP accused Congress leaders of colluding with foreign forces to destabilize India and demanded Sonia Gandhi to disclose her role in a George Soros Foundation-funded organization's activities. The ruling party also attacked Rahul Gandhi, calling him a "pawn" for his protests against the Adani issue.
Widespread rains lashed parts of Tamil Nadu on Thursday, prompting authorities to declare a holiday for schools in Chennai and many other districts.
High nitrate levels have been found in groundwater of 440 districts across India, with 20 per cent of the samples collected exceeding the permissible nitrate concentration, the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) has said in a report.
The weather office has issued a forecast of heavy to very heavy rains at isolated places in several districts of Gujarat over the next one week.
High vegetable prices are expected to keep food inflation firm in the months to come.
India's GDP is likely to grow at 6.5 to 7 per cent in the current fiscal year amid global challenges which may impact exports, said Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. The growth projected for 2024-25 is lower than the economic growth rate of 8.2 per cent estimated for the previous financial year. The Reserve Bank has projected the GDP growth for the fiscal year ending March 2025 at 7.2 per cent.
Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08 per cent in June as food items, including vegetables became dearer, according to government data released on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was on a decline since January, before rising again in June. The CPI-based retail inflation was 4.8 per cent in May 2024 and 4.87 per cent in June 2023.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 3-month low of 2.04 per cent in July on decline in prices of food items especially vegetables, government data released on Wednesday showed. The decline in wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation in July came after it rose for four months in a row till June, when it was 3.36 per cent. It was (-) 1.23 per cent in July last year. In April wholesale inflation stood at 1.19 per cent.
Increased production of pulses, oilseeds, and cereals will help boost domestic supplies and contribute to keeping inflation low in the coming months.
Heavy rain in the first week of July compensated for the shortfall but caused flooding in many northeastern states.
Domestic macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide market sentiments this week, analysts said. After a record rally, markets may face volatile trends this week amid elevated valuations and investors would also keep a track of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar movement for further cues. "Potential volatility in the stock market is anticipated this week. Elevated valuations remain a concern, with investors now focusing on monsoon progress and its impact on the rural economy.
This came after Ranaut stoked a controversy by suggesting that the farmers' protests could have led to a Bangladesh-like situation in the country if the top leadership was not strong enough.
The gig economy market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17 per cent to reach a gross volume of $455 billion by the end of 2024, according to a white paper by The Forum for Progressive Gig Workers. Estimates suggest the gig economy has the potential to create 90 million jobs and add 1.25 per cent to India's GDP (gross domestic product) over time.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's call for making lending rates affordable may not resonate anytime soon as banks still struggle with margin compression, and await clues from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on liquidity and rate action. Hinting that any lending rate cut was some time away, State Bank of India (SBI) managing director Vinay M Tonse said there was still some aggression in the market regarding deposit pricing.
The monthly Rs 2500 payment for poor women is expected to cost Rs 11,000 crore while the pension scheme of Rs 2000 for every senior citizen will cost around Rs 4100 crore. The Yamuna clean up will cost over Rs 10,000 crore while a similar amount is required to upgrade Delhi's hospitals. Ultimately, the new BJP government will have no choice but to ask the centre for financial support, notes Rashme Sehgal.
Singh was JD-U president when the party was part of the INDIA bloc and used to accompany Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to the coalition's meetings.
Kerala has had 202 fatalities in 2024 so far. In July alone, there were 202,122 episodes of fever, 2,250 cases of dengue, 1,850 cases of mumps and several other illnesses. 10,000 cases of dengue have been reported from Karnataka. 1,000 swine flu cases have been documented in Rajasthan.
There is a definite attempt to put the landslides on the backburner because news of them and climate change worry Wayanad's tourism and real estate businesses greatly. Whatever I experienced of Wayanad's 2024 by-elections; the July landslides were not a burning issue, observes Shyam G Menon.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday said the fundamental drivers of the Indian economy are gaining momentum and the country is moving on a sustainable growth path. In the inaugural address at FIBAC 2024, the governor said that massive changes are taking shape in various economic sectors and markets, and the country is geared for orbital shifts.
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